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How Long Can Macroeconomic Variables Affect the Islamic Index in Indonesia?

Achmad Jufri, Sakinah Sakinah

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables' lags on Indonesia's Islamic index. The influence of lag can determine how long macroeconomic variables affect the Islamic index. The macroeconomic variables observed for their impact on the Islamic index are inflation, industrial production index, interest rates, exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, and world oil prices from May 2011 to December 2021. The approach used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that the lags of macroeconomic variables influence the sharia index. The time it takes to affect the stock varies. Inflation, gold prices, and the money supply need a minimum of 1 month to affect stock prices. Industrial production indices and exchange rates have a high-speed ability to influence stock price movements at that time. Interest rates and world oil prices take at least three months to affect stock prices.

Keywords

ARDL; Islamic Index; Macroeconomics

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DOI: 10.21043/equilibrium.v10i2.16707